No petrol or diesel price hike has been announced, but the pressure is real. State-run oil companies last raised prices on 25 May 2026, so petrol in Delhi has cost ₹102.12 a litre and diesel ₹95.20 for 163 days, even though India’s crude basket averaged $119.91 a barrel in October. The oil companies and, through a March excise cut, the government have absorbed the gap. How long that lasts depends on crude, which our guide to how oil, tariffs and interest rates reach India explains.
Where petrol and diesel prices stand today
These are the prices in the four metros on 4 November 2026. They have not changed since 25 May. Before that, Delhi petrol had cost about ₹94.7 a litre since March 2024, and May’s increase was the first since April 2022 in the same series.
| City | Petrol (per litre) | Diesel (per litre) | Petrol change since 14 May | Diesel change since 14 May |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | ₹102.12 | ₹95.20 | +₹7.35 | +₹7.53 |
| Mumbai | ₹111.21 | ₹97.83 | +₹7.67 | +₹7.80 |
| Chennai | ₹107.77 | ₹99.55 | +₹6.93 | +₹7.16 |
| Kolkata | ₹113.51 | ₹99.82 | +₹8.06 | +₹7.80 |
State-run companies raised prices four times in May: on the 15th, 19th, 23rd and 25th. Together that added ₹7.35 to petrol (7.8%) and ₹7.53 to diesel (8.6%) in Delhi. Private retailers have moved separately. Press reports say Nayara Energy raised petrol by ₹5 and diesel by ₹3 a litre on 3 October and Jio-bp did the same on 11 October, while the state-run companies, which run most of India’s pumps, held their prices.
Crude above $100: what it does to oil-company margins
Crude has swung hard this year. The Indian basket, the mix of crude grades that Indian refiners actually buy, averaged $114.48 in April and $106.23 in May, fell to about $82 in July, then climbed back to $116.09 in September and $119.91 in October. On 3 November it was $103.78, according to the PPAC’s Indian basket table. A dated Brent quote tells the same story: the US Energy Information Administration shows Brent spot at $107.03 on 3 November, after $115 to $128 a barrel in the last week of October.
When crude rises and pump prices do not, the oil companies lose money on every litre. ICRA, the rating agency, estimated in late September that the state-run companies were losing about ₹5.3 billion (₹530 crore) a day. It put their marketing margins at about minus ₹8 a litre on petrol and minus ₹9 on diesel, when the Indian basket stood at $117.4 on 21 September. These are ICRA estimates as reported in the press, and I could not find a newer public ICRA figure for November.
Crude alone points to a smaller gap now. At about ₹97 to the dollar, a rate RBI cited in October, each $1 a barrel is roughly 61 paise a litre, so the $13.6 fall in the basket since 21 September is worth about ₹8 a litre. That is my own rough arithmetic, not an ICRA figure. It ignores refined-product prices, which can move differently from crude. It does suggest the loss per litre is lower than in September, but it is unlikely to have disappeared.
Where your ₹100 goes
IndianOil’s price build-up for Delhi, effective 1 November, splits the pump price into the price charged to dealers, the dealer’s commission and VAT. I then took out central excise duty using PPAC’s current tariff table, which shows ₹11.90 a litre on petrol and ₹7.80 on diesel. What is left is the product itself, freight and the oil company’s margin.
| Per litre, Delhi, 1 November 2026 | Petrol | Diesel |
|---|---|---|
| Product, freight and oil company margin (balance) | ₹69.16 | ₹70.44 |
| Central excise duty | ₹11.90 | ₹7.80 |
| Dealer commission (average) | ₹4.47 | ₹3.05 |
| VAT, including VAT on commission | ₹16.59 | ₹13.91 |
| Pump price in Delhi | ₹102.12 | ₹95.20 |
Excise is a fixed rupee amount per litre. VAT is a percentage, so it rises with the price. In Delhi it works out to about 19.4% on petrol and 17.1% on diesel, which means ₹5 more at the dealer level becomes roughly ₹6 at the pump.
Why pump prices don’t track crude every day
- The state-run companies hold prices. Petrol and diesel prices are officially market-linked, but IOC, BPCL and HPCL, which are majority government-owned, change them rarely and in steps. PPAC’s series shows Delhi petrol within a few paise of ₹94.7 for more than two years before May.
- Most of the price is not crude. About a third of a litre of petrol is tax and commission, so a 10% move in the product cost changes the pump price by about 8%.
- Taxes are the government’s shock absorber. The government cut the special additional excise duty on petrol from ₹13 to ₹3 a litre and on diesel from ₹10 to nil on 26 March 2026 (Notification No. 05/2026-Central Excise). Reports at the time said the cut was meant to offset oil-company losses, not to lower pump prices.
- Politics and inflation matter. A fuel hike feeds into transport and food costs, so governments prefer to delay one.
Three ways this ends: a price hike, an excise cut, or the companies absorb it
| Outcome | When it becomes more likely | Who pays | What you would see |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. State-run companies raise prices | More likely if crude stays well above $110 for weeks, as it did in September and October, and the losses keep mounting. The May hikes came with the basket near $106 to $114. | You, at the pump, and indirectly through transport costs. | A ₹5 rise takes Delhi petrol to ₹107.12. |
| 2. Government cuts excise | Less room than before. Diesel’s special additional duty is already nil and petrol’s is ₹3. Remaining cuts would have to come from other duties. | The government, through lower tax revenue. | Pump prices stay unchanged. |
| 3. Companies absorb the loss | More likely if crude stays near or below $100. This is what has happened since 25 May. | IOC, BPCL and HPCL, through lower profits, and so their government shareholder. | Pump prices stay unchanged. |
Nothing stops a mix: a small hike plus a lower tax take, for example. If you want to know which way it is leaning, watch three things: the Indian basket on PPAC, whether ICRA publishes a fresh margin estimate, and any statement from the petroleum ministry.
What a ₹5 or ₹10 hike would do to your fuel bill and to prices
Here is what a hike at the pump would mean for three typical users in Delhi. The monthly use figures are assumptions: 60 litres for a petrol car, 12 litres for a scooter and 50 litres for a diesel car.
| Who | Monthly fuel bill today | If prices rise ₹5 | If prices rise ₹10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol car, 60 litres a month | ₹6,127 | +₹300 (₹107.12 a litre, +4.9%) | +₹600 (₹112.12 a litre, +9.8%) |
| Scooter, 12 litres a month | ₹1,225 | +₹60 | +₹120 |
| Diesel car, 50 litres a month | ₹4,760 | +₹250 (₹100.20 a litre, +5.3%) | +₹500 (₹105.20 a litre, +10.5%) |
The wider effect is harder to pin down. The direct effect on retail inflation is the percentage rise in fuel prices multiplied by fuel’s share of the CPI basket. MoSPI moved to a new 2024-base index in February 2026, and I could not confirm the weight it gives to petrol, so I am not putting a figure on it. The indirect effect comes through freight and public transport, and it builds up over several months. Our piece on why inflation feels different from the official number explains why households often feel fuel and transport costs more than the index shows.
What actually saves fuel (and what does not)
- Drive smoothly. The US Department of Energy says aggressive driving can cut mileage by roughly 15% to 30% at highway speeds and 10% to 40% in stop-and-go traffic. This is US test data, but the physics is the same here.
- Check tyre pressure monthly. The same source says under-inflated tyres cost about 0.2% of mileage for every 1 psi drop, and correct inflation improves mileage by 0.6% on average and up to 3% in some cases. It is small but free.
- Switch off at long stops. Idling can burn a quarter to half a gallon an hour (roughly 1 to 2 litres), depending on engine size and AC use.
- Do not panic-buy. Filling extra cans or topping up before a rumoured hike saves nothing if no hike comes, and storing petrol at home is a fire risk.
Frequently asked questions
Will petrol prices increase in India?
No increase has been announced. State-run companies last raised prices on 25 May 2026, and Delhi petrol has stayed at ₹102.12 since. With the Indian crude basket at $103.78 on 3 November, down from $119.91 in October, a hike is possible but not certain. Watch the crude basket and ministry statements.
Why haven’t petrol prices gone up if crude is above $100?
The state-run companies, which run most pumps, have chosen to absorb the cost rather than pass it on, and the government cut excise duty in March to help. Both are temporary. The companies lose money per litre when crude is high, ICRA estimated about ₹8 on petrol in September, so the pressure builds.
How much is the excise duty on petrol and diesel?
Under PPAC’s current table, central excise is ₹11.90 a litre on petrol (basic ₹1.40, special additional ₹3.00, AIDC ₹2.50, road and infrastructure cess ₹5.00) and ₹7.80 on diesel (basic ₹1.80, AIDC ₹4.00, cess ₹2.00). States add VAT on top. Figures quoted before 26 March were ₹10 higher on each fuel.
Who pays when oil companies sell below cost?
The oil companies bear it first, through lower marketing margins and profits. Because the government owns a majority of IOC, BPCL and HPCL, lower profits also mean lower dividends to it. If the loss is large enough, the usual outcomes are a price rise or a tax cut.
How would a fuel price hike affect inflation?
It raises retail inflation directly through the petrol and diesel share of the basket, and indirectly through freight and transport costs over the following months. A ₹5 rise is about 5% on Delhi petrol. I could not confirm the fuel weight in MoSPI’s new CPI series, so I have not estimated the exact effect.
Sources and method
- Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), daily petrol and diesel prices in metro cities, table posted 4 November 2026, including the price history used for the May increases.
- IndianOil, petrol and diesel price page; price build-up for Delhi effective 1 November 2026 (PDF, not linked).
- PPAC, central excise and customs tariff table for non-GST goods, read 5 November 2026.
- PPAC, Indian crude basket prices, updated 4 November 2026.
- US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price FOB, daily series to 3 November 2026.
- Ministry of Finance, Department of Revenue, Notification No. 05/2026-Central Excise, 26 March 2026, as reported in the press.
- ICRA research on oil marketing company margins, 22 to 23 September 2026, as reported by trade and business press. Press reports on Nayara Energy (3 October) and Jio-bp (11 October) price increases.
- US Department of Energy, fueleconomy.gov, driving and maintenance pages.
Method: prices come from PPAC and IndianOil. The tax split is my calculation from IndianOil’s build-up and PPAC’s excise table. Monthly fuel bills and the per-litre crude arithmetic are my own illustrations. I could not read ICRA’s notes directly, so its figures are second-hand. I did not use any price-comparison website for current prices.
For how the conflict behind these prices began, read our report on the US-Iran war, the closed Strait of Hormuz and oil above $100.
